There is no sports bet without odds, everyone knows that – but what exactly makes the odds turn out the way they do? How can you calculate odds? And above all: what do the odds mean for your own bet? Does it perhaps give an indication of who or what is best to bet on? Or does it just show the risk and the possible profit without being a guide? All of these questions will now be answered here.
What do the odds in sports betting depend on?
In sports betting, the odds always reflect to some extent the probability of a certain event occurring. The less likely something is, the higher the odds for it. In this case, the odds are determined based on a fair rate that only takes into account the probability of winning. In addition to the probability, the bookmaker’s profit margin and the German betting tax of 5% are also factored into the odds. Therefore, the odds in Germany are always slightly worse than elsewhere, which means lower winnings for players. For this reason, many players prefer to place their bets with foreign operators who accept a lower profit margin and where they may also be able to avoid the betting tax.
Who sets the betting odds?
Not every bookmaker calculates the odds for their bets themselves. Some large providers do this on the Internet, which you can find out more about at www.wettanbietererfahrungen.com, for example, and large physical providers, e.g. at racetracks, but also many smaller providers buy the current odds from larger providers. The odds themselves are either calculated by the PC using complicated algorithms, or a professional bookmaker for sports betting determines an ideal odds.
How are odds for sports betting calculated?
The odds for sports betting are always determined in a multi-stage process. First, the sporting event is analyzed. Then a fair odds is determined, which becomes the real odds by including other costs. In practice, however, the odds are constantly changing when the players’ stakes are also taken into account.
Step: Analysis of the sporting event
The first step in determining odds for sports betting is always a sober analysis of the sporting event. Statistics from similar events in the past are used, but the athletes’ form on the day is also taken into account, for example. In addition, countless other details can also be included in the analysis. Ultimately, it is of course very helpful for the bookmaker who is supposed to determine odds if he can draw on as much relevant data as possible. At the end of this analysis, the bookmaker makes hypotheses about the probability of which event occurring. In a football match, for example, he could come to the conclusion that team A has a 45% chance of winning, team B has a 20% chance of winning, and the game has a 35% chance of ending in a draw.
Step: Determining the fair odds
From the probabilities for certain outcomes, the bookmaker can now easily derive a fair odds. To do this, he divides 100 by the probability of a certain event occurring. In the example above, the odds for a win for team A would be 2.22. The odds for a win for team B would be 5, and the odds for a draw would be 2.86.
Step: Calculating a real quota
However, a fair odds is not enough – the bookmaker is not yet making a profit and cannot pay the betting tax. To fulfil these two purposes, the bookmaker calculates a real odds. To do this, he first considers what proportion of the stake he wants to book as profit. Let’s assume that the profit should be three percent. If you add the betting tax of five percent and subtract the sum of both taxes from 1, the result is that players can be paid out 92 percent of their winnings.
To price this directly for the customers, the bookmaker now multiplies the fair odds by the share for the players. The odds for a win for Team A now change from 2.22 to 2.04 and the odds for a win for Team B drop from 5 to 4.6. In addition, the odds for a draw drop from 2.86 to 2.63.
Watch out!
However, you have to be careful with the real odds, because not all providers include the betting tax directly. So odds that seem better at first glance can ultimately bring a smaller profit than odds that seem worse. However, you can find out more about how the real odds are calculated and the inclusion of the betting tax in the general terms and conditions or on a special explanatory page of the bookmaker.
Constant adjustment of quotas
In reality, the odds for the various betting events are constantly adjusted. This happens depending on how many players bet how much money on a certain result. The odds are adjusted in the bookmaker’s interest so that he can ultimately make a profit with the highest possible probability. However, this is not always possible, so it can happen that a bookmaker has to accept losses. Despite all the dynamic adjustment of the odds, it is still important for the bookmaker to maintain the relationship between the various odds for the outcome of an event.
Differences between the quotas
Different bookmakers also offer their customers different odds – even when it’s the same event. This may be because they rate the event differently, but it may also be because they have simply set different profit margins. For customers, the small differences between the odds offered by different bookmakers may not be of much interest at first. But even on a single bet, this can lead to large differences in the potential winnings, and over a longer period of time, large differences can also emerge.
A calculation example for a combination bet can make this clearer. If you place a bet of 100 euros with two bookmakers, but one offers odds of 1.96 and the other odds of 1.94, the differences are immediately greater. If you make a correct bet, you will ultimately receive a profit of 2892.55 euros from the bookmaker with odds of 1.96, while the bookmaker with odds of 1.94 can only pay out a profit of 2747.95 euros. A small difference in the second decimal place reduces the profit by almost 150 euros.
The importance of quotas
Anyone who has already spent a little time with sports betting will quickly notice that it has a very decisive influence on the success of the bets. The bets do not influence whether or not you can make a profit in the end, but they do influence how high the profit will be in the end. Especially if you bet more often or with larger sums, the profit often shrinks noticeably due to poor odds.
It is therefore definitely worth finding out about the best odds on various portals. However, it is not necessarily the case that a bookmaker who has the best odds on offer once can always offer them. The odds change with every sporting event and can vary greatly depending on the users’ different assessments and betting behavior. The best thing to do is to look for the provider who offers the customers the best odds for each bet you want to place.